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T3 Cargo Packs are broken s/lp wise. [PROPOSED SOLUTION]

Etsuji

New Member
In 3.5, the trade outlet pack system was introduced as an overhaul of the pack system. On live North America and Korea, the restructuring of Charcoal production with these changes had resulted in a surge of Charcoal prices. This surge in the price of Charcoal was to provide a decent silver per labor point ratio (s/lp) for players that were running T3 Cargo packs.


On ArcheRage, since we have both the Legacy pack system and the Outlet system, players still have access to traditional methods. Consequently, our server has not resulted in the same surge of charcoal prices like we have seen in other versions of the game that don’t feature the legacy system.



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As we can see here, Charcoal has been stable fluctuating between 1.2 gold and 90 silver. Consequently, with an introductory price of approximately ~32 gold at 130% this would only result in a poor silver per labor ratio that would push players away from running T3 Cargo packs.

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As we can see from this table at best, Yny → Perinoor would produce 27 cargo


Therefore, assuming an optimal price of 1.2g per Charcoal, the riskiest run would result in the following revenue:


upload_2019-4-12_0-42-34.png



Recall that the cost of a pack at 130% is also 32g. This results in players making virtually no profit running T3 cargo packs.


Now of course, in reality, we don’t see them at 130% since no one would run unprofitable packs (which is the first proof that the charcoal output needs to be buffed). We can look at recent pricing from across Haranya.


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As we can see from this image, cargo prices can drop up to >50%. For calculation purposes, we’ll use the 57% figure obtained from Yny and assume a Perinoor Ruins run at 130%.


upload_2019-4-12_0-43-39.png



As we can see, for a tedious and dangerous run, a player would only make 18g profit. Additionally, the labor cost for these packs is 150 lp to turn in.


upload_2019-4-12_0-44-3.png



As we can see, we get only a mediocre s/lp ratio assuming that Perinoor Ruins is at 130%. For comparison, a Sunbite to Solzreed would far outperform this cargo run.



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As we can see, Sunbite to Solzreed, a roughly equivalent “difficult” run compared to the cargo system provides a reduced amount of charcoal. However, if you factor in the purchase cost, no matter how low it goes, the legacy pack system is better when factoring in the s/lp ratio.


Mathematical proof:


First, we have to calculate the cost per Sunbite Citrus Pack

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As we can see the cost is 3.41g, far cheaper than the modern T3 or even T2 Cargo pack. Now if we factor in this to find the Net Profit of the pack run:


upload_2019-4-12_0-44-48.png


We make 16g 63s, which is actually a little less than the T3 pack.

Now for the s/lp ratio:

We know that it takes 45 lp to make a pack, and 65 to turn the pack in, it would cost a total of 110 lp.


upload_2019-4-12_0-45-9.png



Consequently, this run per pack is 25% more efficient per-pack on a silver to labor point basis. Players know all too well with this inefficiency with the T3 Cargo packs, and that’s why we see a huge backlog across all trade outlets.


How to Fix this?

The issue is solely with the silver to labor ratio. Naturally, we should use different ratios for different regions to determine the new cargo count per pack turn in.

The formula I propose for calculating the new prices is


upload_2019-4-12_0-45-37.png


This is reverse engineered from the calculations we had just performed, focusing on getting the Charcoal count. Note that for algebraic simplicity, I have opted to use g/lp instead of s/lp, this means that s/lp values must be multiplied by 100 to be converted to g/lp (this is how silver is converted to gold in ArcheAge and should be intuitive).

At this point, what I propose beyond here is entirely my opinion.

Using the provided formula, I have recalculated the amount of charcoal under my proposed system. For g/lp we use the "Proposed g/lp" values in the chart below. I use 150 for the labor cost, 32 for the labor cost, and 1.2 for the price per 1 charcoal.


We get the following values:

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I propose these gold per silver ratios since they provide similar gold per labor ratios to other methodologies in this game. Of course, different g/lp values can be used to make this chart either more “balanced”, although, I would argue especially when considering a drop in cargo prices this would be far more balanced than the current pricing we have for T3 cargo.
 
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SO. I am gonna respond to this in the way that I find is most reasonable for this server.

1. Labor is irrelevant on this server. You regen labor 2x as fast and there is a surplus of labor pots to generate more labor as needed. So if you factor in labor into any equation then you have to figure in the increased regen amount and the fact that you do not have to pay or sub for patron.

2. You are calculation these equations at a zero proficiency or at the very least a non-maximum ( 180K ) commerce skill this drastically reduces labor cost and effects the calculation above.

3. If you use 1 revenue stream in AA you can pretty much count on not making a profit of Gold. More simply stated you need to diversify you gold making expenditures.

4. Finally there are more reason than just charcoal for the keeping of Legacy system in this version. With 3.5 the regrade cost of items is considerably higher and with land packs still available both ways it creates an influx of gold into the economy so that people can spend money on APEX to get the superior yellow regrade charms and the other Cash shop gated items and keep an influx of gold into the system for the cashers as well. Simply put no gold = no one buying APEX = no one supporting AR = game dies.
 
1. Its actually 4x labor. But that doesn't matter because labor does matter otherwise all materials on this server that required labor would cost nothing. Also like any trade pack these packs costs money to make and labor to turn in/craft this is no different from any pack so to say that he didn't factor in the increased labor regen is dumb because all other packs that he compared the charcoal to are unchanged as well.

2. The calculations again are with both packs cargo/normal being made with 0 prof so of course when he conflates the 2 what he means is that if a new player bought one they'd be getting set amount. Because if you're complaining that the cargo's would generate too much profit then you're also arguing that normal packs generate too much profit since that is what he based his numbers for s/lp off of.

3.This entire point is invalid. Who would do something that wouldn't turn a profit? Packs literally generate gold. Silent forest packs cost like < 3g to make and no matter where you turn them in generate a profit. This point makes 0 sense and shouldn't even be made. If your point is that you will lower the prices of a pack then you can still expect to make around 8-9g per pack at the lowest which is still income.

4.You missed the entire point of his article. It wasn't to touch the legacy system it was to ensure that the new system could match the legacy it terms of usefulness you then created a slippery slope fallacy in which you claim that with his changes the entire server will die which is not true. Also APEX are not in this game. This server runs off of donations which are completely different. your entire 4th point is predicated on him wanting to remove the old system which is just not true if you actually read it he never states that.
 
Easy answer:

Don't use the 3.5 System.

'peng

Also have you done the calculations for the Auroria T3 Cargo pack; Diamond Shore --> Golden Ruins?
 
agreed if the t3 packs arnt being even used the cross continental packs turn to garbage gold because of the the quantity. Therefore making the whole system not working as intended.
 
Easy answer:

Don't use the 3.5 System.

'peng

Also have you done the calculations for the Auroria T3 Cargo pack; Diamond Shore --> Golden Ruins?

So right now, Diamond Shoes --> Golden Ruins is ~31 charcoal. Iirc, the labor cost should be about the same as the normal Nuian/Haranyan T3 cargo runs, So I'd say that the Auroria inland T3 run should be around 64 charcoal per pack at 130%, which would provide a decent s/lp ratio for that run and incentives (since it's a riskier run).
 
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